Minsky'nin finansal istikrarsızlık hipotezi ve Türkiye örneği
Minsky's financial instability hypothesis and case of Turkey
- Tez No: 141068
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. AYKUT KİBRİTÇİOĞLU
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, İşletme, Economics, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2004
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Ankara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 146
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
ABSTRACT This mater's thesis is an attempt to (1) find sources of instability in capitalist economy (2) clarify relations between reel and financial sectors and (3) detect how financial process generates crisis on the ground of Minskian theory. In addition, the objective of this work is to test whether Minskian theory is applicable to Turkish crisis which occurred two times in 1994 and in 2001 or not. Main assertions done by Minsky are presented in his financial instability hypothesis (FIH). Minsky's FIH is designed to explain instability as a result of the normal functioning of a capitalist economy. It is an alternative to the neoclassical synthesis. As Hyman Minsky noted, the FIH is“advanced as an interpretation of Keynes' General Theory”. In brief, the FIH states that over a period of good times, the financial structure of a dynamic capitalist economy endogenously evolve from being robust to being fragile, and once there is a sufficient mix of financially fragile institutions, the economy becomes susceptible to Fisher-type of debt deflation. Minsky also stressed many varieties and forms of capitalism that can take. According to Minsky,“whereas all types of capitalism are flawed, not all capitalism are equally flawed”. To control natural instability of a dynamic capitalist economy, Minsky emphasized the importance for the government to create adequate constraining institutions to stabilize economy. The two most important institutions are the big government and the big bank. Those are key elements why a great depression does not happen again after WWII. The thesis consists of four main chapters. A theoretical investigation for the economic fluctuations is the subject of first chapter. The critical perspective is presented within comparative analysis by the literature survey in economic fluctuations area. In second chapter, critiques of“standard economic theory”well developed by Minsky are presented. Standard economic theory is dealt with under three main titles: consumption function model, the IS-LM framework and IS-LM framework based on labor market. In third chapter, main points of FIH are exposed. Uncertainty, speculations, two price systems, lender's and borrower's risk which are some main concepts of FIH are explained in the process of investment. According to FIH, the processes of evolving financial structure from robust to fragile are presented in this part. In the rest of this chapter, it is presented that big government and big bank, which are constraining institutions to stabilize economy, how to effect economic fluctuations. In the last chapter, short-term economic history of Turkey is dealt with and FIH is tested whether it is applicable to Turkey or not. The discussion is made on the ground of Kregel who claims some of developing countries such as Mexico and Brazil are not appropriate for FIH. However, we couldn't find any reason why we reject FIH for Turkey. According to our thesis, Turkish economic crises occurred in 1994 and in 2001 are“natural results of free market economy”as noted by Minsky. 140
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