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İnsangücü planlama

Manpower planning

  1. Tez No: 22043
  2. Yazar: SABİHA EKMEN
  3. Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. MEHMET TANYAŞ
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: İşletme, Business Administration
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 1992
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 236

Özet

Çok sayıda personel çalıştıran isletmeler, bugün insan gücü planlamaya daha, artan insan gücü maliyetleri nedeniyle daha fazla önem vermektedirler. Bu çalışmada, çeşitli insan gücü modelleri örneklerle açıklanmıştır. Ayrıca, farklı ülkelerdeki şirketlerde kullanılan insan gücü uygulamaları incelenmiştir. îkinci bölümde, insan gücü planlamasının tanımı, yararları, nedenleri ve adımları açıklanarak, insan gücü planlamaya bir giriş yapılmıştır. üçüncü bölümde, çeşitli insan gücü planlama modelleri örneklerle detaylı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Bu bölümdeki örnekler üniversitelerden seçilmiştir. Çünkü, üniversiteler de insan gücü yoğunluğu fazladır ve insan gücü maliyetleri yıllık bütçenin büyük bir kısmını kapsar. Dördüncü bölümde, literatürden seçilen çeşitli insan gücü planlaması uygulamalarından örnekler verilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde, insan gücü planlama çok amaçlı karar ver me açısından incelenmiş ve iki tane ordu insan gücü planlama sıyla ilgili literatürden seçilen örnek uygulama verilmiştir. Besinci bölümde, Türk Hava Yolları' nın insan gücü yapısı verilmiş ve ayrıca bu insan gücü yapısından hareketle çok amaçlı bir insan gücü planlama modeli oluşturulmuştur. Bu modelin oluşturulmasında, lineer hedef programlama kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, lineer hedef programlamanın çözümü için, turbo pascal bilgisayar programlama diliyle bir program geliştirilmiştir. - VI-

Özet (Çeviri)

SUMMARY MANPOWER PLANNING Most employers of large numbers of people are today giving increasing attention to manpower planning. It is nearly a quarter of a century since the term“ manpower planning”ca me into general use, and the subject can now reasonably be claimed to have come of age. Because manufacturing technolo gy is quickly displacing humans from the factory floor, but relatively little is known about how much responsibility humans should retain over plant operation. In Chapter 2, it had been made an introduction to the man power planning : The term manpower planning means different things to dif ferent people. In short, manpower planning is a planning action which gets correct data for managers to make effective decisions. Thus, manpower planning helps-“to increase the ef ficiency of the source of the manpower. The advantages of the manpower planning are s - To get the the manpower in hand to work productively. - To meet the manpower needs of organisation in future. The manpower planning is the one of the main elements which have influence upon the organization productivity. The reasons of the manpower planning s - Technological and environmental changes - To have need of managerial personnel - Behavior of managers - VII -The manpower planning consists of five steps : - Determining the goals and plans of organisation. - Determining manpower in hand - Forecasting manpower needed in future - Application programs - Control and adoption Although the steps of manpower planning can change slight ly from an organization to another organization. In Chapter 3, manpower planning models were explained in detail with several examples s The manpower planning models are corcerned with the stra tegic role of manpower in large organization. These models are used to analyze manpower policy and assist in manpower planning. Analysis of strategic aspects of manpower in an organiza tion requires an aggregate and long-term view. We must allow enough time for natural evolution to change the current stock of manpower. The strategic approach considers manpower in an aggregate sense. We try to select manpower categories that include relativle large numbers of people. This allows a reasonably small model to capture the essantial features of the organization and to gauge the relative impact of al ternate policies. We use our Planning models a) Forecast the future panpower requirements that will be satisfied by the current inventory of personnel ; forecast the future manpower budget commitments represented by the current stock of personnel. - VIII -b)Analiyze the impact of proposed changes in policy, such as changes in promotion or retirement rules, changes in sa lary and benefits, changes in transfers into and out of the organization, and changes in organization's rate of growth» c) Test the rationale of historical policy for consisten cy, and establish the relations among operating rules of thumb. d) Explore regions of possible policy changes and allow a planner to experiment with and perhaps discover new policies. e) Understand the basic process, and thus aid in assessing the relative operational problems. f) Design system that balance the flows of manpopower, re quirements, and costs. g) Structure the manpower information system in a manner suitable for policy analysis and planning. The examples used in Section 3 are generally in the con text of manpower planning in universities or in the armed forces. These examples were selected for several reasons. 1-Manpower plays a major role in both organizations. uni versities a.re manpower intensive, and manpower costs consume the bulk of their operation budgets. Thus the proper use of the manpower resource is extremly important. In the armed forces, manpower costs have increased to consume a very large share of the operating budget. The proper use of manpower is obviously of central importance in planning for the armed forces. - IX -2-These examples illustrate many important aspect of man power planning. Universities are two-sided manpower systems. The labor input (teachers) to the production process ( instruc tion) and the consumers (students) are both manpower systems. The university system illustrates the fundemantal interac tions between time, jobs, people, and money. The student process can be changed in a relatively small amount of time. One can add a graduate school, drop an undergraduate program, open a campus, or decrease enrollment in a short period of time. The faculty process is much less flexible. Hiring and promotion decisions have implications over several decades. It is this difference in response between the student and fa culty system that calls for analysis. The military manpower planning problem deal with a relatively stable labor force (the career military) and customers (military requirements) that can be change by orders of magnitude in relatively short periods of time. We do not treat all the problems of personnel administra tion or personnel management. Personnnel management is in large part concerned with the motivation, leadership, and the interpersonal side of an organization. We concentrate on hi ring, wage, benefit, promotion, and retirement policies and their effects on the structure of the organization. -”Manpower Planning Models : -Cross-Sectional Models s These models are the models which essentially describe how a manpower system changes from one set of stock levels { s4(t) } at an accounting point t to another set { s*.(t+l)} at the point (t+JL). The common featu re of all these models is that knowledge of historic person nel movement prior to t is not required by the model. The only data requirements will be the cross-sectional structure of system at a given time. -Longitidinal Models : Cross-Sectional Model has a serious structural fault when used to decribe manpower flow, espe cially when the flow fractions are interpreted probabilisti cally. Simply stated, this assumption says that flow from one class to another is independent of the time an individual has spent in a given class. Such an assumption is clearlynot valid in many manpower system, where time in a given class is a critical factor in determining availability for promotion or movement. Longitudinal models do not require this restrictive as- assumption of time independence to hold. They are much more general than the cross-sectional models, and attempt to des cribe the flow of a group, or cohort, through the manpower system over time. Synthesis of Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Models : The longitudinal models allow more general flow processes to be modelled, and any cross-sectional model is a special case of a longitudinal model. Although the longitudinal mo- models are more general, they normally have much greate data requirements and thus are mare difficult to implement in ca ses where the model coefficients are estimated from histori cal data. Optimization Models : The most important features of man power models are relatively long time-horizons involved with manpower decisions and the uncertainty in future manpower re quirements. These model persents some approximation techni ques that can be used to explore the range of possible manpower policies. The optimization problems are a part of the planning pro cess. They are not intended to dominate that process. The models are intended as calculating devices to assist in the evaluation öf policy. A decision maker inputs data and as sumptions to the optimization model and obtains a unique, and in a sense optimal, specification of future system performan ce. The data may consists of projected legacies, future re quirements, budget conditions, costs, discount rates, utili- utilization factors, and the coefficients governing the flow process. The data itself represnts assumptions about future and in many respects is a specification of future manpower policy. The decision maker feeds the data to the optimiza- optimization problem and is presented with a description of' future performance. The planner is then free to change the XI -input data and explore a broad range of policy alternatives. If the planning process is viewed this way, then the optimi sation problems become the heart of a policy simulation or policy-exploration model. In Chapter 4, we have presented the different manpower planning applications : A Markov Chain Model for Wastage in Manpower Systems : A Markov chain is a stochastik model for the description, prediction and control wastage hierarchial ly structured man power system. It is the inherent uncertainty brought about by freedom of choice available to the individual which sug gests to us that we could usefully formulate the model in stochastic terms. A Markov chain is sometimes a suitable probability model for certain time series in which observations at a given time is the category into which an indiviual falls. The simplest Markov chain is that in which there is a finite number of equidistant time points at which observations are made, the chain is of first order, and the transition probabilities are the same for each time interval. Such a chain is described by the initial state and the set of transitiom. The reasons for leaving the system from the various grades were classified into the following : İ) Retirement or medical retirement and death, 2) Discharge, r 3) Resignation or redundancy According to model, when the expansion of the organization slows down people start to leave faster: conversly when ex pansion increases wastage tends to decrease. Thus, the pro babilities of individuals leaving voluntarily are not static. - XII -Manpower Panning for The Managerial Workforce s This is the method in use in an industrial company for drawing up the personnel policies concerning The 'Cadres ' ( professionals and managers ). This method aims at fulfil ling concurrently both the needs of organization and the ca reer aspirations of the individuals. Its original feature is to use qualitive information together with more usual quanti- tive data. Such qualitive information is included into a de tailed medium to long-term description of the company needs and it is subsuequently incorporated into the description of the manpower planning policies themseves, allowing for a better the needs of the company and those of its workforce. The basic purpose of our approach is to provide the execu tives responsible for setting up personnel policies and guideslines with data that incorporate long term information. Its original feature is to take into account qualitive information, and to incorporate it into the very description of the manpower planning policies. In Chapter 5, the multiple criteria decision making appli cations in manpower planning have been presented. A Multi-Period, Multiple Criteria Optimazation System for Manpower Planning! This system is used to identfy recruit ment and promotion strategies for managing the enlisted force of the U.S. Navy. Problems in manpower planning entail the manipulation of multiple objectives. Because goal programming was the first widely known technique capable of dealing with large scale multiple criteria optimization problems, many of these prob lems have been cast in the mold of goal programming. One class of manpower planning problems receiving fairly intensive treatment is that of recruitment or recruitment or XIII -accession planning. The model is a prototype model used to examine the accession planning problem in a military system. Generally speaking, the accession planning problem is classified as a multiple criteria trajectory optimization problem because ; a) The problem spans T time periods, b) We wish to monitor the performance of k criteria in each of the T time periods, c) There is a goal level of achievement for each objective in each time period. The time path of goal levels for a given objective forms a trajectory over the T time periods. For each solution, there is a trajectory of criterion values for objective over the T time periods. The challenge, then, in trajectory optimiza tion is to find the solution whose k criterion value trajec tories most closely match the k goal trajectories. Rather than using goal programming on the manpower prob lem, The augmented weighted Tchebycheff procedure of Steuer and Choo(19S3) has been chosen. The appeal the Tchebycheff approac is that it generates multiple solution candidates at each iteration, does not ask the user to specify weights, and enables one to converge to nonextreme final solutions if so desired. The Army Manpower Long-Range Planning System : The needs of managing a multi-attribute pool of personnel over a long-term planning horizon have led to a number of li neer programming and Markov chain-based approaches for eva luating policy options. The Army Manpower Long Range Planning System (MLRPS) pro vides the analytical capability to project the strength of the active U.S Army for 20 years, thus allowing for the deve lopment of longrange manpower plans. The system's models si mulate the interaction of gains, losses, promotions and re classification to enable the analyst to determine the impact of existing policies over the long term, and to determine - XIVchanges that might might be required to reach a desired for ce. The MLRPS, currently supports the personnel planning re quirements of the Army Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel in longrange planning, policy planning and for ce structure analysis, and cost analysis. In Chapter 6, the structure of Turkish Airlines has been described and also an application is given. In this applica tion, we have been used the lineer goal programming. - XV -

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