Makro finansal programlama ve Türkiye deneyi
Macro financial programming and the Turkish experience
- Tez No: 39892
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. İLBAN ONUR
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Mühendislik Bilimleri, İşletme, Engineering Sciences, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1994
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 69
Özet
ÖZET Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde uygulanan klasik programlar tek amaç olarak ekonomik büyümeyi hedeflemektedirler. Bu programların potansiyel büyümenin sağlanmasında çok büyük sakıncaları vardır. Potansiyel büyüme sağlanırken mali akımlar takip edilmezse düzeltilmesi daha zor problemler ortaya çıkacaktır. Bu problemler enflasyon, ödemeler dengesi zorlukları ve sermaye kaçışı olarak sayılabilir. Yapılması gereken reel sektör ile mali sektör büyüklüklerini ortak bir muhasebe yapısında ele almak ve büyüme programında mali akımları da gözetmektir Makro f inansal programlama olarak adlandırılan bu yöntem büyüme ve parasal bloklardan meydana gelmektedir. Bu bloklar“Birleşik Model”çatısı altında söz konusu problemleri çözmede kullanılmaktadır. Modelde fiyatlar genel seviyesi, reel büyüme ve rezervler hedef değişkenler olarak ele alınmaktadır. Fiskal politika değişkenleri (vergiler ve kamu harcamaları ) kambiyo kuru ve iç kredi hacmi politika enstrümanlarını oluşturmaktadır. Bunun dışında 7 adet parametre modelin davranışsal denklemleri ile özdeşliklerini tanımlamada kullanılır. Modelin parametreleri ekonometrik yöntemlerle tahmin edildikten sonra ampirik geçerliliklerini sınamak için model Türkiye'nin 1970-1991 arası ekonomik verileri ile bir uygulamaya tabi tutulmuştur. Burada amaç Türkiye ekonomisi için bir ekonometrik model ortaya çıkarmaktan ziyade Merkez Bankası ve ödemeler dengesi hesaplarını reel kesim ile birleştirerek hangi enstrümanların hangi ekonomik büyüklükleri etkilemede kullanılması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Modelin ampirik performansı 3 aşamada değerlendirilmiştir. îlk aşamada parametreler için tahminlerde bulunulmuştur. îkinci aşamada teorik varsayımların geçerliliği sınanmıştır. Özellikle GSMH' deki büyüme, tasarrufların davranışı ve para talebi üzerinde durulmuştur. Üçüncü aşamada tahmin edilen değerler her içsel değişken için indirgenmiş kalıp katsayıları elde etmek için kullanılmıştır. Katsayıların incelenmesi sonucu iki özellik ortaya çıkmaktadır: kambiyo kuru katsayıları iç krediler ve fiskal politikalar ile karşılaştırıldığında göreceli olarak düşüktür ve parasal ve fiskal politikalarda olduğu gibi kambiyo kurunun enflasyona etkisi, büyümeye ve ödemeler dengesine olan etkilerinden daha büyüktür. ix
Özet (Çeviri)
MACRO FINANCIAL PROGRAMMING AND THE TURKISH EXPERIENCE SUMMARY Potential growth and actual growth are critical issues in development economics. In order to achieve a growth rate as close to potential growth as possible > one has to consider the implication of financial flows. The absence of such a line of analysis results in the disruption of prices» balance of payments» etc. Classical growth programming aims at quantifying the amount of investment required for a target growth rate. In a developing country» it si not possible to apply growth programming without analyzing the effects of financial flows. Simple financial programming» on the other hand» disregards growth as an endogenous variable and calculates the changes in financial aggregates. The aim of this study is to reconcile growth and financial targets in teh framework of a developing country» i.e. Turkey. Turkey is faced with certain conditions that have resulted in economic imbalances. In countries where public sector deficits are high» exchange rate policy and capital inflows gain utmost importance while domestic policies do not have much effectiveness in economic planning. This thesis looks at the two -gap» namely savings gap and trade gap» model and studies varius alternative schemes that can finance these gaps in the growth process. Although one cannot maintain equilibrium state» balance is balance in this framework. The term“macro financial programming”is used to describe growth-oriented financial programming» where the growth rate is not a given» but an endogenous variable of the model. The goals of macro financial programming are two-fold: a sustained reduction in the inflation rate and a viable balance of payments. Financial programming is often an integral part of adjustment packages supported by the International Monetary Fund. An analysis of the effects of policies on the multiple targets of growth, inflation and the balance of payments requires a consistent and unified framework. For this purpose» the Khan and Montiel model was employed. The model is based on a framework that is simple enough to enable its application to countries where data availability is limited and also general enough to enable its applicability to different countries. The model merges a variant of a neoclassical growth model with the monetary approach to balance of payments. The major elements of structural adjustment programs haveincluded the following: 1. Strengthening the balance of payments position» 2. Reduction in domestic financial imbalances» including less government deficit financing» 3. Elimination of price distortions in various sectors of the economy; 4. Promotion of domestic savings in public and private sectors» 5. Increasing trade liberalization» and 6. Restoration of orderly financial relationships with trading partners as well as creditors and mobilization of additional external resources. The specific policy instruments have included: 1. Credit ceilings and control of money supply; 2. Exchange rate adjustment» mainly devaluation; 3. Interst rate policy» 4. Fiscal policy including measures for resource mobilization as well as the reduction of public expenditure; 5. Deregulation of prices of goods» services and factor inputs; 6. Trade and payments liberalizaton» including for example the removal of import quotas; 7. Institutional reforms with emphasis on increased capacity.,.to implement public investments and privatization; and 8. Debt rescheduling.. The“restoration of balance' perspective has been identified as the IMF approach. Policy advice is derived from a focus on monetary aggregates and puts considerable emphasis on demand restraint. Supply side issues have not generally been directly addressed» but restoring the conditions for renewed growth is a stated objective. The second ”policy reform' approach has beenidentif ied with the World Bank. Ultimate concerns for the World Bank are real as opposed to narrowly monetary. This approach is therefore“supply side focused' and is preoccupied with the establiushment of a growth dynamic. Focus is put on macro prices such as the exchange» interest and wage rates» and the need for removing price controls and distortions is stressed. The third ”transformation' approach £s much broader and reflects contributions from structuralist and more radical approaches to economic development. This perspective is not narrowly identified with an institution» but corresponds broadly with the views of for exmple the - OUA/ECA and critics of the orthodox approaches. This approach is concerned the continuous» long-run needs of growth» transformation and development. As such» it is as much concerned with the establishment of a growth dynamic as the World Bank concept and“policy is part of the solution*. All economies have to be continuously adapting to changing circumstances and both the first and second concept of adjustment are therefore in this view nothing more than subsets of the wider and longer term process of xidevelopment. The above classification does not fit all situations and the overall picture has become much more blurred than in the beginning of the 1980s. Most [policies cannot be classified as either demand or supply measures» and neither the World Bank/ IMF nor proponents of so-called alternative approaches have, been static in their viewsin the past decade. The World Bank has gradually put increasing emphasis on the transformation approach) and the IMF is giving signs of concern with the overall growth and poverty impact of its programmes. Perspectives on structural adjustment are evolving in a dynamic manner. The need for adjustment is no longer part of controversy, and more emphasis is put by all involved on distributional as well as growth and supply-side issues. Howver» demand management cannot be neglected due to the need of closing resource gaps. There are various ways of doing this with differing implications for macroeconomic balance» growth and development. The search for a right approach is new. The analytical models of the IMF and the World Bank» and the way in which they are used» continue therefore largely unaltered» and an integrated framework fpr_ analyzing stabilization and structural adjustment measures and programmes is still lacking. It remains therefore» that structural adjustment needs to be developed further. It is within the above ”context that this study was carried out. Chapter 1 sets out the the particular features of the Turkish economy» the sources of imbalances and the macro -economic management issues the government has faced. In the second half of the 1970s» the import substituting industrialization strategy, which generated rapid growth during the 1950s, created a major economic crisis in Turkey. The heavy dependence of the manufacturing sector on imported intermediate and capital goods was the major factor. In 1977, growth halted and Turkey began its first series of stabilization programmes under the supervision of the IMF. There are major lessons to be learned from Turkey's economic experience, which relate to growth-oriented adjustment. In Chapter 2» a useful macroeconomic accounting framework is developed. Planned and orderly adjustment is desirable when imbalances, that are reflected in slowing growth, a growing external deficit and inflationary pressuresd» appear. There are various ways of interpreting the the underlying but interlinked reasons for faltering economic performance» and they tend to lead to markedly different policy conclusions. Furthermore, adjustment policies depend not only on the particular combination of problems at hand, but also which problems are assigned priority, and on the perceived nature of the economy. Finally, in the short run, some parameters may xiibe taken as givens» which are in the longer run subject to manipulation through policy. Consistency is a first and basic requirement in all macroeconomic analysis. It is therefore useful to elaborate on what macoeconomists mean by balances. Therfore, a macroeconomic accounting framework is set to provide a general overview of macroeconomic adjustment issues, including an identification of the kinds of policies which may be needed for for stabilization and structural adjustment. The starting point is the economy-wide balances known from national accounts» which are organized around the the three concepts of production, income and expenditure. These identities can be used to illustrate the essence of the problems of stabilization and structural adjustment. The three notions of production) income and expenditure are interl inked, as budget constraints must be adhered to by all sectors. This implies that for any sector» income from production plus net transfers is equal to physical and financial asset acquisitions. For the economy as a whole, the value of production must equal the value of incomes generated. In Chapter 3, financial programming, IMF's approach to economic stabilization, is described. The IMF financial programming modek revolves around the four macroeconomic accounts: national balance, external balance, monetary balance and fiscal balance. Financial programming evolved through various stages starting with the empty framework of the set of four identities. The first transformation into an analyticmodel was accomplished by Polak. As opposed to the elementary absorption approach, Polak tried to integrate monetary and credit factors with the absorption approach to the balance of payments, which was used as a frame of reference at the time. Thus, Polak suggested explicit links between the monetary and the external sector with the objective of arriving at a formal relationship between the domestic component of the money stock (i.e. domestic credit) and changes in international reserves, which could be fruitfully employed for policy. Two key behavioral assumptions include that money demand, which is assumed to depend on a limited number of varibales, is stable, and that imports is a function of nominal income. Furthermore, money is endogenously determined as the sum. of domestic credit and foreign reserves of the domestic banking system. Finally, the balance of payments identity links changes in the international reserves with the current account and changes in foreign assets. The demand for money obviously depens on a number of variables such as income, the interest paid on bank deposits and other financial assets, expected inflation etc. However, Polak used the assumption that money demand depends on nominal income only and that money circulates at constant velocity. Savings and invetment are not considered explicitly and there is no capital market. This implies that the money supply can no longer serve as a policy instrument as in the standard Keynesian closed-economy model and that all savings by assumption are immediately invested. xiiiPolak model was later used to develop the monetary approach to balance of payments. Monatary phenomena are handled differently in the Chicago version of the onetary approach to balance of payments. It is pointed out that Keynesian approach is not valid and that the domestic banking system cannot in the longer run sterilize the impact of the current account balance on the domestic money supply. It follows that the the money supply cannot be used as a policy instrument. Also, behavioral determinants directly relevant to the money account are given more emphasis. The fundamental result of the“Chicago' version of MABOP is that under fixed exchange rates the money supply is endogenous and any increase due to an expansion in domestic credit will automatically lead to a decrease in foreign reserves on a ”one -for -one' basis. If the economy is growing) the demand for money is also growings so domestic credit can expand without causing balance of payments problems. But if the rate of domestic credit expansion exceedds the positive flow demand of money» the balance of payments will deteriorate and foreign reserves fall. Similarly» if the rate of domestic credit expansion falls short of the rate of increase of money demand, the balance of payments will improve and foreign reserves increase. Chapter 4 describes the "revised minimum standard model' (RMSM), the most widely used economy-wide numerical programming model within the World Bank. The primary purpose» similar to the two -gap model, is to show what levels of investment, imports and external borrowing will be required for a targeted real output growth. The icor links output growth and investment as in the Harrod-Domar specification. it is also assumed that exports are determined exogenously are independent of output. The import function can be specified in various ways depending on what drives the need for imports. The RMSM model is closed by suppressing the savings gap and calculating consumption from the overall national income account balance. This amount to running the model as a one-gap model. Another approach» suggested by Khan, Montiel and Haque» suppresses the trade gap. Private consumption is treated endogenously while government consumption and taxes are exogenous. To close the model, the change in reserves is designated as an additional target variable and the governmant is let to set the foreign câptal inflow to achieve overall balance. The RMSM was originally designed as two-gap structural model in which both the trade- and savings-gap might be binding, so suppressing either one is not satisfactory. The two -gap nature of the model can be maintained by introducing additional policy variables. The exchange rate is a candidate and action in this field is a common expenditure-swithching policy instrument. One of the several possible ways of completing the model is to let capital inflows be determined by exogenous factors beyond government control and modify the import function to make it dependent upon the exchange rate. The end result of RMSM is that taxes and public expenditures can be xivmanipulated in such a way that not only the bop target, but also the output target can be realized. In Chapter 5, the two models are merged to form an overall conceptual framework that can serve the respective analytic needs of the IMF and the World Bank» and at the same time be- tailored to the circumstances and the structural characteristics of individual countries. The mreged model contains a growth and a monetary building block, which are in accordance with RMSM and financial programming lines of thinking» respectively. These two components jointly determine the growth rate, the balance of payments and domestic prices. With reference to the monetary sector» the assumed stability of the relationship between the stock demand for money and explanatory variables such as real income» exoected inflation and the exchange and interest rates is maintained. The supply of money is dtermined from the monetary balance as the sum of international reserves held by the monetary system plus domestic credit. The third characteristic of the monetary sector is the equilibrium condition ensuring balance between the flow demand and the flow supply of money. This monetary system is enlarged with an external sector component starting with the balance of payments identity. Exports and the inflow of non-tarde realted foreign exchange are assumed exogenously determined. It remains to be the foreign currency value of export and non-tarfe foreign exchange that are exogenous. The other- component of the merged model is the price -output sector. Real output is derived from the Harrdo-Domar equation» but the aggregate price level is introduced explicitly to underline that nominal investment must be deflated. In total» the merged model contains three targets, eight endogenous variables, six parameters, a number of pre-determined variables thogether with the three policy instruments. In conclusion, once output growth» change in reserves and domestic prices have been targeted» the merged model can be used in its programming mode to determine the values of the policy instruments: exchange rate» change in domestic credit and taxes together with government consumption. The merged model can also be used for comparison» where the impact changes in selected policy instruments » the parameters and the exogenous variables on the target variables is assessed. Chapter 5 puts forth an empirical analysis of the merged model by applying it to the Turkish economy. Relating to the stability of the parameters of the model,.several striking conclusions are derived. The production function does not explain much of the variation in actual output. One likely explanation is that the function traces out the production possibility frontier, which is not true when there is excess capacity. Savings rate is relatively stable. This impies that there is at least some empirical support for this behavioral equation. The fit for the money demand function indicates that the assumed stability in money circulation is empirically unjustified. The import and export appear with the xvtheoretically expected sign. Estimation of the parameters of a model is useful in indicating how it fits diverse circumstances. If the multipliers, linking endegenous variables with the policy instruments, are very sensitive to changes in the parameters, the model is not robust and the degree of precisin in forecasting will be low. The empirical relevance of the model depends on which variable is chosen as the primary target: balace of payments, output or inflation. The rnge of multipliers is limited for balance of payments and growth while it is broader for inflation. The reliability of policy implications dpend on the policy instruments under consideration. The impact on all target variables of changes in the exchange rate tends to be little affected by parameter changes, whereas credit and fiscal policies are more sensitive. This implies that the model is only potentially relevant in the assessment of exchange rate policy. It should be stressed that the multipliers associated with the exchange rate tend to be relatively small, suggesting that it takes large exchange rate modifications to affect the targets in any significant way. Chapter 7 discusses policies that reconcile balance of payment and growth targets. An outline of an extended model is described to relate financial programming to situtaions where nominal income growth is responsive to domestic credit expansion. Even if varying the amount of credit expansion affects only the real or price component, nominal income is still affected. Consequently, it becomes essential to establish that the permissible amount of credit determined by reference to the balance of payment target is also consistent with the nominal income growth. XVI
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