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Türkiye'nin temel göstergeler bakımından konumunun isatistiksel analizi

A Statistical analysis of Turkey's position with respect to its basic indicators

  1. Tez No: 39722
  2. Yazar: ZEYNEP TÜLİN ÖZER
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. ÜMİT ŞENESEN
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Mühendislik Bilimleri, İşletme, Engineering Sciences, Business Administration
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 1994
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 185

Özet

ÖZET Bu tezin amacı, Türkiye'nin kişi başına düşen milli gelir, nüfus, sağlık, eğitim, kentleşme, tüketim ve üretim yapısı bakımından dünya "üzerindeki ve kendi gelir grubu içindeki konumunu, istatistiki yöntemlerden yararlanarak incelemektir. Ayrıca, çoğunlukla geçmiş yıllara ve yakın zamana ait veriler birarada incelemeye alınıp karşı laştırılarak, Türkiye'nin gösterdiği gelişim hakkında da bilgi veril meye çalışılmıştır. Genel tanıtım Bölüm Vde, ülkelerin kişi başına düşen milli gelirlerine göre sınıflandırılması Bölüm 2 'de, nüfus ve nüfusun yapı sı Bölüm 3'te, sağlık Bölüm 4'te, eğitim Bölüm 5'te, kentleşme Bölüm 6 'da, tüketimin yapısı Bölüm 7' de, üretimin yapısı ise Bölüm 8' de yer almaktadır. Sonuçlar ve öneriler kısmında ise genel bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır.

Özet (Çeviri)

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TURKEY'S POSITION WITH RESPECT TO ITS BASIC INDICATORS SUMMARY The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the position of Turkey with respect to its GNP per capita, population and its structure, health, education, urbanization, Structure of consumption and structure of production. We will examine our position in the past and in the recent years and then we analyse our position in the world and among the lower-middle-income economies of which Turkey is a member. We will also compare Turkey with other income groups, if necessary. The thesis contains eight parts. Part 1 introduces the theme of the thesis, and provides an overview of our study. The second part of the thesis is on GNP per capita. 125 economies are classified into four income groups according to their GNP per capita. These are : 1) Low-income economies 2) Lower-middle-income economies 3) Upper-middle- income economies 4) High-income economies Turkey is a lower-middle income economy with the GNP per capita of 1630 Dollars in 1990. It is joyful to see that this value exceeds the median of the world and the median of our group. The third part of the thesis is a detailed study of popula tion and its structure. Turkey's population was 56 million in 1990 and we were an outlier for our group. It is estimated that Turkey's population will be 68 million in 2000 and 91 million in 2Q25. Our position in our income group will remain the same (i.e. an outlier) It is clear that Turkey's population has grown rapidly. Our population increased at a rate of 2.4 % p. a in 1965-1980. In 1980- 1990 Turkey's population growth. rate was still 2.4 % p. a. Turkey had the same value with the median of the world both in 1965-1980 and in 1980-1990. But, Turkey's population growth rate p. a. was below themedian of our group. It is estimated that Turkey's population growth rate p. a will decline to 1.9% in 1989-2Q0Q and it will be less than both the median of the world and the median of our income group. The age structure of population in Turkey is also analyised in the second part of the thesis, due to the importance of age structure of population in many areas such as education, employment, housing etc. In 1990, the proportion of children aged Q-14 was 34.8 %, the proportion of the people aged 65 * was 4.3%. We can say that the age structure of population in Turkey resembled to that of the upper- middle income economies rather than the age structure of our income group. It is estimated that in 2025, 23.1 % of our population will be aged 0-14, 67,6 % will be aged 15-64 and 9.3 % will be aged 65 and over. The proportion of the people 15-64 that Turkey will have in 2025 will almost be equal to our group's third quartile and will exceed the third quartiles of other income groups. Although it has same good points in it, it is clear that it will bring some problems in educa tion, employment etc. Third part of the thesis is on health. Our first topic is life expectancy. In 1965, a person who was born in Turkey was expected to live only 54 years (Female:55, Male:52). Our life expectancy reached 67 years in 199.0 (Female: 69, Male:. 64). Because these values exceed the medians of our group and the world both in 1965 and in 1990, we can say that Turkey has a good position in its group and in the world. The population per physician and the population per nursing person will also be investigated due to their relations to quality of health services. In 1965, the number of the population per physician was 290.0 and it was less than both our group's median score and the world's median score. In 1984, the number of the population per physician was 1390 and it was still less than the median score of our group and the median score of the world. We can say that Turkey has a good position in its income group and in the world. Unfortunetely, we can't say the same thing for the population per nursing person. In 1984, the number of the population per nursing person in Turkey was 1030 and it was equal to third quartile value of group. It shows that in Turkey the number of the population per nur sing person is rather high compared with our group.. Since the maternal mortality rate (per 100 000 live births) is a reliable reflection of mother health, the position of Turkey in maternal mortality will be investigated in the thesis. In 198Q, (xxvi )the maternal mortality rate in Turkey was 20.7 per 10.0 QQO. live births and it was greater than the median values of hoth cur group and the world. Although we didn't have a good position in 19.80, Turkey's maternal mortality rate resembled to our group's. Another topic that reflects the mother health is percentage of births attended by health staff. In 1985, 78 % of the births in Turkey was attended by health staff. This value exceeds both the median value of our group and the median volue of the world. So, we can say that in 1985 we had a good position in our group and in the world. After we investigate mother health, we will examine the posi tion of Turkey in the health of babies and children. In 1985, the proportion of babies with low weight was 7 %. This score was equal to the first quartile value of the world, but less than the first quartile value of our group. We can say that the percentage of babies with low weight in Turkey is more suitable to upper-middle income economies. Turkey has the same score with Singapore, England, Spain, Italy and Kuwait which are high income economies. In 1965, the infant mortality rate in Turkey was 169 per 1000. live births. It was too high, even greater than the median value of lower-income economies. But, Turkey succeeded to decrease the infant mortality rate to 6Q by 1990, Although we were still over the median of our group and the median of the world, it is clear that Turkey improved its position in its group and in the world. Under-5 mortality rate in Turkey is also high. In 1990, under-5 mortality rate was 73 per 10Q0 live births for females and 8Q for males. These values were greater than the median of our group and the median of the world. Our last topic about health is daily calorie supply per capita. In Turkey it was 2698 calorie in 1965 and 3236 in 1989. These values are quite high and we can say that in Turkey, daily calorie supply per capita resembled to daily calorie per capita in upper-middle income economies in 1965 and upper income economies in 1989. Education supplies the human resource economy needs. We will examine the position of Turkey in education in the fifth part of the thesis. The hest and the most reliable way to have an opinion about the education level of a country is to examine the illiteracy. Illiteracy in Turkey was 19 % in 199Q (Female 29 %).. It is joyful to see that these values are less than the median values of our group and the world. (xxvii)tf we investigate the percentage of age group enrolled in primary school, we see that it is very high in Turkey especially in 1989. It was 101 in 1965 and 112 in 1989. The score in 1989 exceeds the third quartiles of all income groups. At first look it seems good that our scores are very high. But, we should know that the scores exceeding 10Q show that 50 many people enrol in primary school too late. So, the truth is that if the percentage of age group enrolled in school is over 10Q, it points out some problems. The percentage of age group enrolled in primary school (Fe male) was 83 in 1965. This value exceeds the median score of the world, but less than the median score of our income group. Our score increased to 108 in 1989, and exceeded the third quartiles of all income group. The percentage of age group enrolled in secondory scholl is rather low if it is compared with that enrolled in primary scholl. It was 16 in 1965 (Female : 9) and 51 in 1989 (Female: 39). These scores were less than the median scores of our income group both in 1965 and in 1989. It shows that we haven't reached a desirable level yet. But, we have a good position in tertiary school level. The percentage of age group enrolled in tertiary school was 4 in 1965 and 13 in 1989, These scores exceed the median values of our group and the median values of the world. Our scores resemble even to upper-middle income economies". The last topic we will investigate about education is pri mary- pupil teacher ratio. It was 46 in 1965. This score was too high even greater than the median value of the lower-income economies. But, Turkey was able to decrease this score to 30 by 1989. This score was equal to the median of our group and it was still greater than the median of the world. The next part of the thesis is urbanization. In 1965, only 34 % of Turkey's population lived in urban areas. It was greater than the median value of our group. In Turkey the percentage of people living in urban areas reached 61 % in 1990. This is greater than even third quartile score of our group. Average annual urbanization rate was 4,1 % in 1965-1980 and 5.9 % in 1980-1990. The score in 198Q-199Q exceeds the third quartile score of our income group. But, we know that the important thing is the quality of urbanization. (xxviii)The seventh part of the thesis is on structure of consumption. We spend for food the most ( 4Q 1), Other items are clothing and footwear (15 %), fuel and power (71), rents (61), transport and communication (5 % ), health (4 %) and education (1 %), The last part of the thesis is structure of production,. We will examine the distribution of gross domestic product. In 1965, the proportion of services to gross domestic product was 41 %. The proportion of agriculture was 34 % and the proportion of industry was 25 1. If we compare the distribution of gross domestic product in Turkey with that in lower-income economies, we see that in 1965, the proportion of agriculture in Turkey is rather high, but the proportion of services is rather low. But, the proportion of agriculture decreased to 18 % and the proportion of services increased to 49 %. in 199Q. And also the pro portion of industry increased to 33 %. We can say that in 1990, Turkey became more suitable to lower-middle income economies in distri bution of production. (xxix)

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