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Sürdürülebilir finans ve SKDM arasındaki ilişki: Politika etki değerlendirmesi ve bir çimento tesisi varsayımsal vaka analizi

The relationship between sustainable finance and the CBAM: A policy impact assessment and hypothetical case study of a cement plant

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  1. Tez No: 959176
  2. Yazar: İNCİ NUR ÇETİN
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. SADULLAH LEVENT KUZU
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Çevre Mühendisliği, Environmental Engineering
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2025
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Çevre Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Çevre Bilimleri, Mühendisliği ve Yönetimi Bilim Dalı
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 93

Özet

Küresel iklim değişikliği, çevresel etkilerinin yanı sıra ekonomik, sosyal ve politik alanları da kapsayan yoğun gündemi ile 21. Yüzyılda tüm gerçekliği ile beraber yer almaktadır. İçinde bulunduğumuz 2025 senesi itibarı ile bireyler, şirketler, devletler ve uluslararası kuruluşlar gelecek stratejilerini oluştururken küresel iklim değişikliği gerçekliğine öncelik vermekte ve iklim krizi senaryoları ile hareket etmektedirler. Belirleyici rol oynayan ulusal ve uluslararası kuruluşlar tarafından iklim değişikliği ile mücadele ve iklim değişikliğine uyum süreçleri doğrultusunda iklim odaklı çalışmalar yürütülmekte ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerini destekleyici politikalar uygulanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, üçüncü taraf ülkesinde yer alan bir çimento üretim tesisinde Sınırda Karbon Düzenleme Mekanizması (SKDM)'nın sebep olacağı etkileri sürdürülebilir finans çerçevesinde çevresel ve ekonomik yönleriyle ele alarak Politika Etki Değerlendirmesi gerçekleştirilmiştir. SKDM, Avrupa Birliği (AB) tarafından geliştirilen, AB bölgesine ihraç edilen mallara karbon ücretlendirmesi uygulaması ile karbon sızıntısını önlemeyi amaçlayan bir mekanizmadır ve çimento sektörü SKDM kapsamında belirlenen en kritik altı karbon yoğun sektörden biridir. Yürütülen araştırmada çevresel ve finansal etkilerin değerlendirilmesi için varsayımsal bir vaka çalışması tasarımı kullanılmıştır. Hem nicel hem de nitel yöntemler kullanılan araştırmada, senaryo, finansal modelleme ve politika haritalaması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Temel performans göstergeleri arasında çevresel (CO₂ emisyonları, emisyon yoğunluğu), ekonomik (üretim ve uyumluluk maliyetleri, karlılık), teknolojik (yeşil teknolojiye geçiş) ve düzenleyici (GTİP Kodları, uyumluluk standartları) metriklere yer verilmiştir. Hipotez senaryolarında, üretim, maliyetler ve emisyon stratejileri üzerindeki etkileri değerlendirerek farklı SKDM uygulama seviyeleri modellenmiştir. Bu çalışmadaki finansal analiz, maliyet-fayda değerlendirmelerini içerirken; çevresel değerlendirme, emisyon azaltımlarını ve yeşil teknoloji verimliliğini içermektedir. Bu doğrultuda; varsayımsal yöntem ile Türkiye'de bulunan bir çimento üretim tesisinin üretim kapasitesi ve proses verileri belirlenmiştir. Belirlenmiş olan değerler ile çimento tesisinin Kapsam 1 ve Kapsam 2 emisyonlarının yanı sıra satın alınan klinker için Kapsam 3-Kategori 4 emisyonu da hesaplanmıştır. Tesisin mevcut durumdaki toplam sera gazı emisyonu değeri 1.398.350 tCO₂/yıl olarak hesaplanmış ve gömülü emisyon değerinin 0,55 tCO₂/ton çimento olduğu bilgisine ulaşılmıştır. SKDM Sertifika ücretlendirmesi hesaplanırken tesisin üretiminin %20'sinin, %40'ının ve %100'ünün AB bölgesine ihraç ettiği kabul edilerek üç farklı SKDM Beyanı ve buna bağlı olarak üç farklı SKDM Sertifika ücreti hesabı yapılmış ve ihracat oranına göre maliyet değişimi karşılaştırması yapılmıştır. Tesisin düşük karbonlu üretim stratejisi benimseyerek üretim sürecinde klinkeri azaltmasını sağlayan alternatif hammadde olarak Bentonit eklenerek Alternatif Hammadde Kullanım Senaryosu oluşturulmuştur. Alternatif Hammadde Kullanım Senaryosu sera gazı emisyon hesabında Mevcut Durum'dan farklılaşan kısım olan Kapsam 3 – Kategori 4 emisyonu hesabı yapılarak tesisin toplam sera gazı emisyonu değeri 1.310.724 tCO₂/yıl, gömülü emisyon değeri ise 0,52 tCO₂/ton çimento olarak hesaplanmıştır ve bu da alternatif hammadde kullanımının emisyon azaltımında etkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Alternatif Hammadde Kullanım Senaryosu'nda da SKDM Sertifika ücretlendirmesi hesaplanırken Mevcut Durum ile aynı yöntem izlenmiş ve üç farklı SKDM Beyanı ve buna bağlı olarak üç farklı SKDM Sertifika ücreti hesabı yapılarak ihracat oranına göre maliyet değişimi karşılaştırması yapılmıştır. Mevcut Durum ve Alternatif Hammadde Kullanım Senaryosu için toplam maliyet tutarları karşılaştırılarak finansal analiz tamamlanmıştır. Uluslararası boyutta iklim değişikliği ile mücadele faaliyetlerinin teşvik edilmesi amacı ile gelişen iklim politikaları değerlendirildiğinde, karbon yoğun sektörlerin mali yükümlülükler ile karşılaşacağını ancak emisyon azaltım teknolojilerini üretim süreçlerine entegre edilerek mali yükümlülüklerin azaltılabileceği öngörülmektedir. Özellikle Türkiye'nin iklim politikalarının uluslararası standartlar seviyesine gelmesi Türkiye'deki sektörlerin emisyon azaltım hedeflerine ulaşmalarını kolaylaştıracaktır.

Özet (Çeviri)

Global climate change, covering environmental impacts as well as economic, social and political areas , is taking place in the 21st century with all its reality. The accelerating pace of climate change and the global call for decarbonization have intensified the need for financial systems to align with environmental objectives. As of 2025, individuals, companies, states and international organizations are prioritizing the reality of global climate change while creating their future strategies and are acting with climate crisis scenarios. National and international organizations which play a decisive role are carrying out climate-focused studies in line with the processes of combating and adapting to climate change and implementing policies that support sustainable development goals. As part of this study, a dedicated section was developed to present the conceptual and practical structure of a sustainable finance framework. The framework examines not only as a regulatory and strategic tool but also as a necessary response to the evolving needs of financial markets in the face of environmental and social risks. The analysis highlights why such a framework is essential for financial institutions and investors, especially in terms of risk management, transparency, capital allocation, and alignment with international standards. Particular attention is paid to how projects are evaluated and selected, how proceeds are monitored and reported, and how disclosure practices influence accountability. Key components of the sustainable finance framework covered in the study include the integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into investment decision-making, the definition of sustainability targets in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and adherence to international principles such as the European Union (EU) Taxonomy regulation. Additionally, the framework incorporates criteria for project evaluation and selection, mechanisms for tracking the allocation and use of proceeds, and standards for impact reporting and transparency. The role of second-party opinions (SPOs) and independent verification was also emphasized, particularly in strengthening market credibility and investor confidence. By including this framework in the study, the thesis aims to bridge theoretical approaches with practical implementation tools, offering a comprehensive foundation for assessing how sustainable finance can serve as a lever for environmental and economic transformation. The discussion contributes to a deeper understanding of how structured financial governance can support the transition towards a low-carbon, inclusive, and resilient economy. In this context, the development of a coherent sustainable finance framework is closely linked to emerging regulatory mechanisms that seek to internalize environmental costs and guide financial behavior accordingly. One such mechanism, the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism ( EU CBAM), represents a critical intersection between climate policy and international trade. As a carbon pricing tool designed to prevent carbon leakage and ensure a level playing field for EU industries, CBAM also sends a strong signal to global markets regarding the cost of carbon-intensive production. Its implementation underscores the necessity for financial actors, especially those exposed to carbon-intensive sectors and global value chains, to integrate climate-related risks and compliance requirements into their investment and risk assessment strategies. Within this context, the EU CBAM, which targets carbon leakage through embedded emissions in imports, emerges as both a regulatory milestone and a financial risk driver. This research conducted a comprehensive Policy Impact Assessment (PIA) of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on a cement plant in a third-party country, evaluated both environmental and financial impacts within the framework of sustainable finance. Through a detailed case study of a cement manufacturing plant, one of the sectors directly impacted by CBAM, in Turkey the study assesses emission profiles, cost exposure, and potential decarbonization pathways. The EU CBAM is designed to reduce carbon leakage by imposing a carbon price on imported goods, with the cement sector being one of the six most critical carbon-intensive industries. Carbon-intensive industries such as cement manufacturing face growing regulatory and market-based pressures under evolving climate policies. The CBAM, currently in its transitional stage (2023–2025) and expected to be fully operational by 2026, places a carbon price on certain imports to maintain a level playing field with EU manufacturers regulated under the Emissions Trading System (ETS). By acting as a border correction measure, CBAM alters international trade relations and sets new environmental benchmarks for non-EU exporters. In parallel, sustainable finance tools, such as green bonds and loans tied to ESG criteria, can function as both financial motivators and limitations, depending on how closely a company's operations align with climate goals. This conducted research employed a hypothetical case study design to assess the environmental and financial impacts and the analysis integrates emissions trading principles, the EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities, and ESG finance frameworks to explore how financial tools and regulatory signals can jointly steer the cement industry toward a low-carbon transition. Used both quantitative and qualitative methods, the research integrated scenarios, financial modelling, and policy mapping. The study is grounded in the evolving frameworks of climate-aligned finance, the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy, and international carbon pricing schemes. The concept of sustainable finance is approached by examining how environmental risks are reflected in financial decisions, how ESG principles are incorporated into investment processes, and how capital is redirected toward environmentally friendly technologies. Simultaneously, CBAM is assessed as a regulatory tool aimed at addressing carbon leakage and expanding the scope of carbon pricing to goods originating outside the EU, in this scope this study analysis also considers the significance of emissions data, including the EU's default emission factors for clinker under CBAM's transitional guidelines, as well as the associated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) obligations. Key performance indicators included environmental (CO₂ emissions, emission intensity), economic (production and compliance costs, profitability), technological (green technology adoption), and regulatory (HS Codes, compliance standards) metrics. Hypothetical scenarios estimated emission reductions and financial impacts under varying levels of technology deployment (e.g., CCUS, alternative fuels, energy efficiency) model varied CBAM enforcement levels, assessed their effects on production, costs, and emission strategies. Financial analysis included cost-benefit evaluations, while environmental assessment tracked emission reductions and green technology efficiency. In this context; the production capacity and process data of a cement production facility in Turkey were determined with the hypothetical method. In addition to the Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions of the cement facility, the Scope 3-Category 4 emission for the purchased clinker was also calculated with the determined values. The current total greenhouse gas emission value of the facility was calculated as 1,398,350 tCO₂/year and the embedded emission value was found to be 0.55 tCO₂/ ton cement. While calculating the CBAM Certificate price, it was assumed that 20%, 40% and 100% of the facility's production was exported to the EU region, and three different CBAM Reports and three different CBAM Certificate prices were calculated accordingly, and a cost change comparison was made according to the export rate. As findings, in case of 20% product export, the CBAM Certificate price for the product equivalent to 276.980 tCO₂ /year is 19.388.600 EUR, while in case of 40% product export, the CBAM Certificate price for the product equivalent to 553.960 tCO₂ /year is 38.777.200 EUR and in case of 100% product export, the CBAM Certificate price for the product equivalent to 1.398.350 tCO₂ /year is 97.884.500 EUR. An Alternative Raw Material Usage Scenario was created by adding Bentonite as an alternative raw material that allows the facility to reduce clinker in the production process by adopting a low-carbon production strategy. While the clinker ratio was 85.6% during the production phase, the clinker ratio decreased to 81.6% assuming 5% Bentonite addition in the Alternative Raw Material Usage Scenario. In the Alternative Raw Material Use Scenario greenhouse gas emission calculation, the Scope 3 - Category 4 emission calculation, which is the part that differs from the Current Situation, was made and the total greenhouse gas emission value of the facility was calculated as 1,310,724 tCO₂/ year and the embedded emission value as 0.52 tCO₂/ton cement, which showed that the use of alternative raw materials was effective in reducing emissions. With the use of 5% bentonite as an alternative raw material, showing that a slightly more than 6% reduction in carbon emission and approximately 5,5% reduction in embodied emission is proved. In the Alternative Raw Material Use Scenario, the same method was followed when calculating the CBAM Certificate price as in the Current Situation, and three different CBAM Reports and three different CBAM Certificate prices were calculated accordingly, and a cost change comparison was made according to the export rate. As findings, in case of 20% product export, the CBAM Certificate price for the product equivalent to 261.872 tCO₂ /year is 18.331.040EUR, while in case of 40% product export, the CBAM Certificate price for the product equivalent to 523.744tCO₂ /year is 36.662.080EUR and in case of 100% product export, the CBAM Certificate price for the product equivalent to 1.310.724tCO₂ /year is 91.450.680 EUR. These CBAM Certificate price amounts show that price amounts decreases in paralel with the decrease in carbon emissions in presence of alternative raw material. The financial analysis was completed by comparing the total cost amounts for the Current Situation and the Alternative Raw Material Use Scenario. The findings of this study suggest that the CBAM serves as both a regulatory tool and a financial element, encouraging exporters in carbon-intensive sectors to reducing carbon footprint in production and operational processes. The research demonstrates that the relation between sustainable finance and CBAM is crucial for the green transformation of hard-to-abate sectors such as cement. While CBAM introduces a direct financial cost on carbon-intensive exports, sustainable finance offers both a response mechanism and a transformative opportunity. From a financial perspective, climate-related risks are becoming increasingly important in credit and investment decisions, particularly for industries with high emission levels for example financial institutions and ESG rating agencies are now more likely to limit access to funding for firms that fail to improve their environmental performance. On the other hand, companies that take concrete steps to reduce their emissions, supported by credible transition plans, can benefit from more favorable financial conditions. Therefore, the interaction between CBAM and sustainable finance frameworks establishes a dual incentive structure. Transition in carbon intensive sectors will require not only compliance with emissions accounting and reduction obligations under CBAM, but also active engagement with green finance instruments to support low-carbon investments. This may accelerate industrial decarbonization, especially if financial mechanisms are designed to be accessible and responsive to the transition needs of exporters in developing countries such as Turkey. In particular, Turkey's climate policies reaching international standards will make it easier for sectors in Turkey to achieve their emission reduction targets.

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