FinTek ekosisteminin gelişimi, dinamikleri ve iş modelleri: COVID-19 kaynaklı belirsizliklerin FinTek yatırımları üzerindeki etkisi
The development, dynamics, and business models of FinTech ecosystem's: The effect of the COVID-19 related uncertainty on FinTech investments
- Tez No: 999417
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. KAYA TOKMAKÇIOĞLU
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: İşletme, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2026
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İşletme Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Finansal hizmetler sektörü, teknolojik gelişmeler ve yenilikçi yaklaşımların etkisiyle sürekli bir dönüşüm süreci içerisindedir. Küresel ölçekte hissedilen 2008 finansal kriz sonrasında, dünya genelinde finansal sistem köklü bir değişime uğramıştır. Bu süreçte alternatif finansal araçların yaygınlaşmasıyla birlikte finansal teknolojiler (FinTek) ön plana çıkmıştır. Dijitalleşme eğilimlerinin hız kazanmasıyla birlikte, 2020 yılında ortaya çıkan Covid-19 pandemisi FinTek sektörünü daha da ivmelendirmiş; dijital platformlara, çevrim içi bankacılığa ve temassız ödeme sistemlerine yönelik küresel ilgi kayda değer ölçüde artmıştır. Bu gelişmeler neticesinde, yatırımcılar tarafından FinTek sektörünün sunduğu esnek ve ölçeklenebilir iş modelleri, kriz dönemlerine uyum kapasitesi ve uzun vadeli büyüme potansiyeli önemli bir fırsat alanı olarak görülmeye başlanmıştır. Bu tez çalışmasında, FinTek sektörünün teknolojik altyapısı, kavramsal temelleri, uygulama alanları, ekosistemi ve gelişim dinamikleri kapsamlı biçimde ele alınmaktadır. Ayrıca FinTek uygulamalarının finans sektörü üzerindeki dönüştürücü etkisi değerlendirilmiş; sektörde yaygın biçimde kullanılan teknolojiler, iş modelleri ve pandemiyle birlikte FinTek ekosisteminde yaşanan değişim detaylı olarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, Covid-19 pandemisinin oluşturduğu belirsizlik ortamının FinTek yatırımları üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmek ve bu ilişkinin yapısını istatistiksel yöntemlerle ortaya koymaktır. 2014-2024 dönemine ait çeyreklik verilerle yürütülen analiz, iki temel araştırma aşamasında yapılandırılmıştır. İlk aşamada, pandeminin FinTek yatırımları üzerinde anlamlı bir etki yaratıp yaratmadığını incelemek amacıyla Mann-Whitney U testi uygulanmış; böylece pandemiden önceki ve sonraki dönemlerdeki yatırım dağılımlarının istatistiksel olarak farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığı test edilmiştir. Covid-19 pandemisinin bulaşma riski ve ekonomik kayıplara ilişkin endişeler, küresel ölçekte ciddi bir belirsizlik ve istikrarsızlık ortamı yaratmıştır. Bu kapsamda, pandemi kaynaklı belirsizlikleri kantitatif olarak değerlendirmek amacıyla geliştirilen Dünya Pandemi Belirsizlik Endeksi (World Pandemic Uncertainty Index - WPUI), mevcut literatürde güvenilir bir ölçüm aracı olarak yaygın biçimde kullanılmaktadır. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında, küresel FinTek yatırımları ile Covid-19 pandemisi arasındaki ilişki, zaman serisi analiz teknikleri kullanılarak incelenmiş; pandemi kaynaklı belirsizlikleri temsilen geliştirilen Dünya Pandemi Belirsizlik Endeksi (WPUI) aracılığıyla Covid-19'un etkisi ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Öncelikle veri serilerinin durağanlığı Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Sonraki aşamada, değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkileri analiz edebilmek amacıyla Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeli uygulanmıştır. Uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya konulduktan sonra çalışmanın devamında, hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) aracılığıyla kısa vadeli dengesizliklerin zaman içinde ortadan kalkarak sistemin yeniden dengeye ulaştığı ortaya konulmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular, pandemi kaynaklı belirsizliklerin kısa vadede FinTek yatırımları üzerinde baskılayıcı bir etkide bulunduğu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, zaman içerisinde bu etkinin yön değiştirdiği ve belirsizlik düzeyindeki artışın yatırımlar üzerinde gecikmeli fakat teşvik edici bir rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, çalışmanın bulguları, yatırımcıların ilk şok etkisinin ardından finansal teknoloji temelli çözümlere yönelerek belirsizlikle mücadele etme eğilimi gösterebileceklerini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, FinTek sektörünün kriz koşullarına karşı adaptasyon kapasitesinin yüksek olması ve belirsizlik ortamlarında dahi büyüme potansiyelini koruyabilmesi bakımından dikkat çekicidir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, literatüre katkı sağlamasının yanısıra kamu otoriteleri ve yatırımcılar açısından kriz dönemlerinde dijital finansal altyapıların desteklenmesinin stratejik önemini vurgulamaktadır.
Özet (Çeviri)
The financial services sector has been evolving under the influence of technological advancements and innovative approaches. In particular, digitalization, increased data-processing capacity, and the widespread adoption of innovative financial solutions have reshaped the traditional understanding of financial intermediation. Following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the erosion of trust and structural shortcomings within the financial system accelerated the search for alternative financial solutions; in this process, financial technologies (FinTech) emerged as a significant component of the financial sector. FinTech applications have driven sectoral transformation by providing faster, more accessible, and cost-efficient solutions across a broad spectrum of financial services, including banking, payment systems, asset management, and insurance. In addition to technological progress, changes in consumer behavior, the widespread use of mobile devices, and the need for financial inclusion are among the key factors supporting the growth of FinTech. Moreover, economic and social shocks experienced on a global scale have also played a decisive role in shaping the development of the FinTech ecosystem. In this context, the Covid-19 pandemic that emerged in 2020 did not remain solely a public health crisis; rather, by exerting profound effects on production, consumption, and investment decisions, it led to significant disruptions within the global economic system. Under pandemic conditions where physical interaction was restricted, demand for digital financial solutions increased rapidly; consequently, contactless payment systems, digital banking, and online financial services became critical tools for ensuring financial continuity. In this context, investors have increasingly come to view the FinTech sector as a significant area of opportunity, driven by its flexible and scalable business models, resilience during periods of crisis, and long-term growth potential. This thesis presents a comprehensive examination of the FinTech sector, focusing on its technological infrastructure, conceptual foundations, application areas, ecosystem, and development dynamics. It also evaluates the transformative effects of FinTech on the financial industry by analyzing widely adopted technologies, business models, and the structural shifts observed within the ecosystem during the pandemic period The primary objective of the study is to investigate how the uncertainty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic has influenced FinTech investment activity and to contribute to the existing literature on this relationship. In doing so, the research explores the ways in which pandemic-driven uncertainty has shaped investment dynamics, assesses the structural and strategic opportunities emerging from this process, and develops forward-looking insights into how comparable global shocks may affect future investment environments. Examining the performance of the FinTech sector during the pandemic, together with changes in investor behavior and the evolution of demand for digital financial solutions, not only deepens the understanding of contemporary economic conditions but also offers important implications for policy formulation and strategic decision-making in periods of crisis. Empirically, the study employs quantitative methods using quarterly data covering the period 2014-2024 and is structured in two main research phases. As a preliminary step, analysis, the structure of the dataset was first examined and descriptive statistics of the variables were evaluated. At this stage, the main characteristics of the investment series, including measures of central tendency and dispersion, were analyzed to provide an overall understanding of the data. Subsequently, normality tests were conducted to determine whether the sample satisfied the assumptions required for parametric testing. The findings indicated that the data did not meet the normal distribution assumption; therefore, the use of non-parametric methods was considered more appropriate for comparing two independent groups. In the first phase of the study, to test whether the pandemic had a significant effect on FinTech investments, the Mann-Whitney U test was applied. This enabled an evaluation of whether the distribution of investments differed statistically between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The results of the Mann-Whitney U test indicate that FinTech investment levels differed significantly between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Specifically, the post-pandemic period exhibited higher median investment values compared with the pre-pandemic period, suggesting that the pandemic was associated with a structural shift in investment dynamics. The transmission risk and economic uncertainty brought about by Covid-19 created a significant atmosphere of instability on a global scale. In this context, the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) developed as a quantitative tool to measure pandemic induced uncertainty has been commonly used in the existing literature as a reliable metric; accordingly, it was decided to incorporate this variable into the analysis. In the second phase of the analysis, the linkage between global FinTech investments and the Covid-19 pandemic was examined using time series analysis techniques. The impact of the pandemic was empirically analyzed through the WPUI, which serves as a proxy for pandemic-related uncertainty. As a first step, unit root properties of the series were evaluated through the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests. The test results indicate that lag lengths were selected based on the Schwarz Information Criterion and that the FinTech investment series and the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) were not stationary at their level values. However, when first differences were taken, both series became statistically stationary. In light of its capacity to allow for variables integrated at different orders, the model was estimated employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. Within the scope of the model, the bounds testing approach was employed to examine the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, and the calculated F-statistic was compared with the relevant critical value ranges. The findings indicate that the computed F value exceeded the upper critical bound, thereby confirming the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. Accordingly, it was verified that the long-run coefficients in the model are interpretable. Then, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied in order to analyze the short- and long-run relationships among the variables. After establishing the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship, the analysis proceeded with the error correction model (ECM). The negative and statistically significant error correction term indicated that short-run disequilibria gradually dissipate over time and that the system converges toward its long-run equilibrium. The findings indicate that pandemic induced uncertainty exerts a suppressive effect on FinTech investments in the short term. However, over time, this effect appears to shift direction, suggesting that rising levels of uncertainty may eventually play a delayed but stimulative role on investments. In this context, the results reveal that, following the initial shock, investors tend to gravitate toward financial technology-based solutions as a means to cope with uncertainty. This highlights the FinTech sector's strong capacity for adaptation under crisis conditions and its ability to maintain growth potential even in uncertain environments. The results provide a meaningful contribution to the academic literature and emphasize the strategic importance of supporting digital financial infrastructures during times of crisis for policymakers and investors alike. Moreover, the demonstrated resilience of the FinTech ecosystem underscores the necessity of fostering flexible business models and proactive regulatory frameworks to enhance preparedness for future disruptions. Nevertheless, FinTech investments are also influenced by other factors that may be correlated with pandemic-related uncertainty. Therefore, including variables such as interest rates, developments in digital infrastructure, regulatory changes, and general risk appetite in future studies is expected to provide a more accurate assessment of the relationship. Furthermore, when the economic implications of FinTech applications are examined, it is observed that alongside their positive effects such as enhancing financial inclusion, reducing transaction costs, and supporting economic efficiency-they also entail risk factors, including regulatory challenges, cyber risks, and potential pressures on financial stability. Therefore, it is emphasized that the development of FinTech should be evaluated not solely as technological progress, but also in conjunction with regulatory and institutional adaptation processes.
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